Переходцева Э.В.
The models of the operative hydrodynamic-statistical forecast of the storm wind over the territory of russia
The models of the operative hydrodynamic-statistical forecast of the storm wind over the territory of russia
E. V. Perekhodtseva
Hydrometcenter of Russia, Moscow
perekhod@mecom.ru
The development of successful method for automated statistical well-in-advance forecast (from 12 hours to two days) of storm winds, squalls and tornadoes is actual problem because the prediction of these phenomena is a very difficult problem for synoptic till recently. The synoptic gives the storm warning of this dangerous phenomenon with the earliness only 3 hours.
Nowadays in Russia there is no successful hydrodynamic model for the forecast of such storm wind (with the velocity V>19m/s, V>24m/s), hence the main tools for the objective forecast development are the methods using the statistical model of these phenomena recognition. The using of the values of the prognostic fields of some hydrodymamic Russian hemispheric [1] and regional [2] models in the statistic discriminant functions allowed us to develop the models of the hydrodynamic-statistical forecast of the storm winds. These forecasts were recommended for the using in the operative practice [2].
REFERENCES
1. Perekhodtseva E.V. Hydrodynamic- statistical model of the forecast to 36 hours ahead of dangerous convective daytime and nighttime phenomena – squalls, tornadoes and rainfalls.// Research activities in atmospheric and oceanic modeling, Report 32, 2003.
2. Perekhodtseva E.V. Hydrodynamic- statistical forecast method of the squalls and of the strong wind in the class of dangerous phenomena on the summer to 12-36h ahead using the prognostic fields of the regional model for the European territory of Russia//Russian. Moscow: 2013. The proceedings of the information, N 40, p. 170-181.
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