Переходцева Э.В.
The models of the operative hydrodynamic-statistical forecast of the heavy rainfalls causing often floods, landslides, mudflows
The models of the operative hydrodynamic-statistical forecast of the heavy rainfalls causing often floods, landslides, mudflows
E. V. Perekhodtseva
Hydrometcenter of Russia, Moscow
perekhod@mecom.ru
The statistical forecast models of heavy and dangerous rainfalls and precipitation causing often floods, landslides, mudflows are submitted at this talk. These models are based on the recognition of the meteosituation sets with the presence of the high values of precipitation and the absence of such values. The automated hydrodynamic-statistical forecast models were developed on the base of these statistical models with the using output production of the hydrodynamic forecast models (the hemispheric model and the regional model [1]). The forecast methods of the precipitation Q>14mm/12h were recommended for the using at the operative practice after independent tests [1]. The estimation are successful in the comparison with the estimation of the hydrodynamic forecasts [1,2]. At this report are given the examples of the prediction of heavy rainfalls for the territories of North Caucasus, European part of Russia, Siberia and other. These forecasts allow to mitigate the great economic losses (the flood on the small river Nechepsukho at the North Caucasus brings economic losses equal 3 mln. Rubles).
REFERENCES
1.E.V. Perekhodtseva. Hydrodynamic-statistical method of the forecast of the heavy summer precipitation over European territory of Russia on the base output data of the regional model of Hydrometcenter of Russia // Russian. Informazionnyi sbornik. Moscow: 2014, N41, p. 74-87.
2.A.N. Bagrov. Comparative estimation of the heavy summer precipitation forecasts of the hydrodynamic models of the different scale / Russian. Informazionnyi sbornik. Moscow: 2014, N41, p.63-73.
К списку докладов