Sidorov D.   Yasyukevich Y.   Жуков А.   Мыльникова А.  

Studying the ionosphere nonlinear dynamics for the total electron content nowcasting

Reporter: Жуков А.

The complex dynamical processes in the ionosphere are defined by  variety of parameters  including  solar activity, geomagnetic activity, neutral atmosphere state. These and other parameters  influence the electron density and total electron content (TEC) which are the  main ionosphere parameters. The solar and geomagnetic indices are mostly used to describe the ionosphere dynamics. It is to be noted that  these indices' relevance vary during the transition process. In this paper we continue our works [1,2] and  propose the new method for characterisation of the key parameters' impact on the Earth ionosphere's dynamics. The method is based on the decision trees ensembles models. Our results demonstrate that the importance of 24-hrs exponentially averaged TEC is one of the main parameters influencing the ionosphere dynamics. It implies the strong meteorological process influence as well 24-hour ionosphere stationarity. Joint increase in the relevance of the geomagnetic and solar indices at the midlatitudes pointed out the multiplicative character of these indices influence on TEC.
This work was performed under the Russian Science Foundation Grant №17-77-20005.
Zhukov A., Sidorov D., Mylnikova A., Yasyukevich Yu. Machine learning methodology for ionosphere total electron content nowcasting // International Journal of Artificial Intelligence. 2017. V.16(1). P. 144–157
Zhukov A.V., Sidorov D.N., Mylnikova A.A., Yasyukevich Yu.V. Selecting the key control parameters for the ionospheric total electron content nowcasting // Sovremennye problemy distantsionnogo zondirovaniya Zemli iz kosmosa.  2018. V.15(3). P. 263-272, DOI: 10.21046/2070-7401-2018-15-3-263-272 (in Russian).

To reports list