Gusiakov V.K.  

Mathematical modeling in the problem of assessment of tsunami hazard on marine coasts

Mathematical modeling is one of the most powerful and flexible tools for studying complex natural phenomena, in which the setting up of a direct full-scale experiment is, as a rule, impossible. A typical example of a dangerous natural phenomenon characterized by low frequency and severe consequences are tsunami waves that occur in the deep ocean after some strong underwater earthquakes, but cause major destruction in the coastal zone. The two main scientific and practical tasks in the tsunami problem are the operational forecast and the preliminary tsunamination of the coast. The main problem of assessing the tsunami hazard of the ocean coast, which has a subduction zone, is to obtain realistic estimates of the place and time of occurrence of a mega-earthquake with a magnitude of 9.0 and higher in the nearest segments of this zone. Obtaining such estimates is a complex scientific and practical problem and actually reduces to solving the problem of a long-term forecast of the strongest earthquakes. The report provides an overview of the research conducted at the Tsunami Laboratory of the ICMMG SD RAS which allows us to refine operational forecasts and provide long-term estimates of the tsunami hazard of the coast. The research is carried out with the financial support of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (Project 16-05-00450).

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